Non Aquarium- My take on the elected presidency

There has been so much hoo ha on the EP issue recently. it is obvious, the Internet community had perceived the EP as a PAP vs the rest campaign. Well, the previous president SR Nathan did not exactly ask too much questions on ultra sensitive issue unlike the late Mr Ong. Of course i am not saying Nathan did not discharge his duties to the best of his ability, let the public be the judge of that. In a turbulent time for the PAP, the failings of their policy are rearing its ugly head. Like a mythical Hydra, they have come to a stage where any new policies to fixed the old problems simply create new problems for them. Just like when you chop off one of the Hydra head, 2 more grows back.

so what have the PAP failed over the years. Its is simple, to the layman, they failed to maintain a reasonable quality of life and expectations of the ordinary citizen. in a detailed explanation. they failed in the method to grow the GDP. rather than value add the goods and service we produce, we simply offer marginal value as per our competitor and to compensate that, we open the flood gates to foreigner to boost demand of essential goods and services. they failed in infrastructure planning as well. to make analogy, if one were to increase the horsepower and torque of a vehicle drastically, you will need to improve your brakes, your suspension, your chassis and tyres. simply having a horsepower boost and not upgrading the rest will definitely guarantee an accident.

despite being a one party government with full powers to dictate policies, coordination was non existent. infrastructure such as transports, health care, public housing and education failed miserably. any promise of a quick fix and catchy political slogans such as "Singaporeans first" are nothing more than an illusion. like an oasis in a desert, those desperate enough to believe it are usually the one to die first. it took twenty years of bad policies to cause the mess, it will definitely take more than an election to fix it.  why should we put our trust in the people who cause the mess in the first place?Inflation while not the sole fault of our monetary policy are a catalyst to the problems that lousy policies create.

PAP understand without the backing of a hinterland, the best bet is to ensure continuity through a Sovereign wealth fund that would buy or control companies that would be strategic to growth and survival. An example would be to buy resource companies and effectively able to divert resource sales to Singapore in times of need. SWF concept incepted in the 70s was a vision but that too had failed miserably. GIC is at best a material shareholders in most of the companies it buys. SWF had failed spectacularly if we were to evaluate them on their political goals. Our SWF are nothing more than a overestimated private equity holding on to assets valued in depreciating currencies. When has an industry in Singapore ever benefited from a SWF maneuvers? eg. buying a tech company and sharing the patents with local sme to improve their competitiveness in world markets?

So now that we have a brief nature of the state of the country is in, lets look at the candidates and the underlying strategy the PAP had adopted to Cruise through this presidential election. It is obvious to anybody with half a brain why we have 4 candidates. it is to dilute the votes of the non pap supporters. Tan Cheng Bock(TCB) is a red herring to the voters. he is being positioned as a candidate not sanctioned by the PAP while Tony Tan is the official PAP candidate. don't be fooled my voters, TCB is here to gather the neutral vote. he is the perfect candidate, never a cabinet minister, low profile, never gather any wrath on bad PAP policies. remember the man is close to the PAP leadership having been a member of the elite central committee of PAP.

Next on, Tan Kin Lian (TKL). this guy i believe is not a puppet of the PAP having been forced out of his cushy job as NTUC income CEO and not followed on with a political office offering. However, having this guy as a president will simply make this proverb holds true " meet the new boss, same as the old boss". With a ultra neutral position on everything, he is someone that will not rock the boat. His most daring act involves speaking on the Lehman issue and offering to write some letters to MAS. that's about it. extremely calculative of his strategy, he choose not to stand for election in the last GE and had refrained from openly supporting any opposition political party. if the idea of an elected president is to provide checks and balance for the government and our reserves, how can we entrust it onto a man with no conviction and passion except for his own interest. he simply reminds me of those office politics expert that will maneuver any situation to ensure their continued prosperity and survival in a company. sounds very familiar right, sounds like your colleagues and bosses eh. if TKL can make president so can those people.

Tan Jee Say. the man i will be voting for. Not because i truly believes he is a righteous man. There is a saying "no good men will be politicians" He is the best hope of a true checks and balance in the govt. A washout of the PAP system, he has a bone to pick with the people who had flushed him out. His affiliation with the SDP hints of a more pro-active way of getting to the govt. of all the opposition, the SDP stands out in terms of its actions towards an authoritarian govt. the rest are campaigning on stable ground , afraid to cross the line. SDP never backs down, its culture and leadership attract like minded individuals. TJS is expected to get the hardcore anti PAP votes which is likely to be 20% or more but because TKL will get the neutral side, it is unlikely TJS will win or come close.

Tony Tan, the man need no introduction, one of the round table of guys who own Singapore whether you like it or not. This is the guy to gather the pro PAP votes, which i believe in the current climate should still form the marginal majority of votes that will be cast. Many people who are surviving fine will prefer not to rock the boat. the biggest reason, PROPERTY PRICES. while i am skilled in the art of yields and macroeconomics, your man on the street are not. they blindly believe that our PAP government is the all powerful force that can ensure the stability and steady rise of property prices.  this propaganda on capitalising on the fear of property price decline is an ultra successful campaign that the PAP had orchestrated. i will explain in another post why local property prices will crash eventually and the signs that are bringing us there.back to the topic, while PAP believe their votes will form the majority, they are not confident like they are when Ong Teng Cheong was running. Hence comes TCB as a safety net. In a worst case scenario based on the data they collected on the recent election, suppose Tony Tan under a standard deviation of 0.2, could gather only 40 % of the votes, TCB could easily get 20% or more of the neutral vote and both PAP old dogs will have 60%. No matter what sort of allocation TKL and TSJ get will be irrelevant. Voters behaviour will not change overnight, almost all GRC and SMC gather 56-60% of votes in the last GE so it is likely the votes for the EP will be close to what the GE results are.

So what are the strategy to overcome this. it is simple. TKL should withdraw to give TJS a fighting chance. TKL withdrawal will shift 20% of the vote to TJS and that should give him over 40% of the votes with the remaining 10+% as wildcard. Any screw up from Tony tan and he is indeed screwing up slightly with his evasive answering,  support of the ISA and his sons NS stint, TJS will have a real chance of getting those wildcard votes and start the road of ruin for the PAP..